Will AI replace Actuaries?
Computer and Mathematical · O*NET 15-2011.00
Task exposure index for this occupation
Averaged across the week, this work sits in the middle of the exposure scale: a real part of it is already automatable and a real part is not. O*NET breaks Actuaries into 10 distinct work activities. Weighted by how much of the week each one takes, 27% of the job sits at or above the threshold where current systems can do the task end to end. The single largest contributor is "Manage financial activities of the organization", which scores 26 and takes roughly 38% of the week. That is the average for the job title. It is not a measurement of any particular person’s week, and the difference between the two is usually larger than the difference between job titles.
Model v1.2 · activity indices last updated 18 August 2026
What this occupation does
Analyze statistical data, such as mortality, accident, sickness, disability, and retirement rates and construct probability tables to forecast risk and liability for payment of future benefits. May ascertain insurance rates required and cash reserves necessary to ensure payment of future benefits.
The most exposed parts of the job
Scored 0–100 on how completely a current system could perform the activity.
- Analyze data to identify trends or relationships among variables.86
About 8% of a typical week
- Analyze health-related data.86
About 10% of a typical week
- Develop organizational goals or objectives.62
About 9% of a typical week
- Advise customers on technical or procedural issues.44
About 4% of a typical week
- Advise others on legal or regulatory compliance matters.44
About 4% of a typical week
The least exposed parts
The same scale. These are the activities current systems handle worst.
- Negotiate contracts with clients or service providers.20
About 6% of a typical week
- Manage financial activities of the organization.26
About 38% of a typical week
- Testify at legal or legislative proceedings.32
About 9% of a typical week
- Collaborate with others to develop or implement marketing strategies.40
About 10% of a typical week
- Provide customer service to clients or users.42
About 3% of a typical week
How far off the rest is
Of those 10 activities, 2 can be performed by systems available today and 3 are outside what current approaches do at all. The remaining 5 sit in between — demonstrated in research or in narrow products, but not something you can hand over whole. We do not put dates on that middle group, because nobody can.
Compared with similar occupations
The nearest scoring roles in Computer and Mathematical.
- Actuaries (this page)43
- Information Technology Project Managers46
- Video Game Designers54
- Computer Network Architects55
Why your own number is different
Two people with the title "Actuaries" can spend their weeks on almost entirely different parts of this list, and the parts they choose move the number far more than the title does. Who signs off when the work is wrong, whether the job needs you physically present, and how fast you have picked up the tools all change it again — and none of that is in an occupation average.
The assessment asks you to divide your own week across these activities and answer fourteen questions about the parts of the job an occupation average cannot see. It takes six to nine minutes.
Score my own roleFree to take. The full report is a paid subscription — the price and its terms are on the pricing section, before you start.
Questions
Will AI replace Actuaries?
We do not answer that, because nobody can. What is measurable is how much of the work is already doable by machine: for Actuaries, about 27% of a typical week, across 10 activities. The other 73% is not, and what happens to the job depends on things this index does not contain — cost, regulation, who carries the liability, and what the people doing it decide to do next.
What part of this job is most exposed?
"Analyze data to identify trends or relationships among variables" — it scores 86 out of 100 on task automatability and takes roughly 8% of the week.
What part is least exposed?
"Negotiate contracts with clients or service providers", at 20 out of 100. Work like that is where the hours you protect tend to be worth the most.
Where do these numbers come from?
The activity list and the time weights come from O*NET 30.3, the US Department of Labor's occupational database. The exposure score for each activity is ours, from a published model — the weights, the priors and the limitations are all on the methodology page. No language model is involved in the arithmetic.
Does this apply to my job?
Only roughly. This is the average for the title, and the number that matters is the one for the week you actually work. The assessment asks you to divide your own time across these activities and answer fourteen questions about accountability, the parts of the job that need you specifically, and how fast you have adapted. That produces a different number, and usually a more useful one.
The full model — the weights, the priors and what it cannot see — is on the methodology page.